Covid: Peak of cases in mid-April in Campania and 7 other regions

Campania is among the 8 regions in Italy that will have the highest number of positive cases of covid within a month. The peak is expected in mid-April. A study by statistician Livio Fenga predicted it.

An increase in positive cases is expected in eight regions, while Sicily, Umbria, and Sardinia are bucking the trend, and Lazio is seeing the first positive signs, which could lead the region out of the red zone in two weeks. This is according to the algorithm developed by statistician Livio Fenga.

“It is a model based on the combination of forecasts and from which – Fenga points out – an increase in positive cases emerges regions which we could consider under special surveillance”. Among the latter, the model indicates Campania, which goes from 98.073 positives recorded overall up to March 16 to approximately 127.317 expected for mid-April. “Very substantial growth rates” are also expected in Calabria, Puglia, Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy and Piedmont. ”

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In Lazio - continues Fenga - there are signs that could lead to an exit from the red zone in the space of two weeks, going from 54.371 cases detected on March 16 to the 44.294 expected for mid-April". It could be, according to the expert, a result of the current containment measures. "It is likely to think that at the end of March the positive cases in Sicily will drop below 10.000", continues Fenga. Other virtuous regions and going against the trend are Sardinia and Umbria, where by mid-April a decrease in new cases is expected from 5.905 to 3.937 in 30.

the highest numbers in Campania, Lombardy and Emilia Romagna

According to the expert, "it is possible that the opening of schools has determined a substantial increase in some regions". Although "the model is not designed to capture the variants, but to make predictions, the feeling - he concludes - is that the variants are playing a significant role as it is not uncommon to detect, observing the dynamic structure of the equations, phenomena attributable to sudden increases in the number of positives". The model indicates, for example, that in Campania the total number of positives goes from 98.073 on April 16 to 127.317 in mid-April; in Emilia Romagna from 68192 to 116.185, in Lombardy from 95.776 to 147.552 and Puglia from 39.214 to 50.039.