Covid, Sebastiani (Cnr): “Incidence rises in 6 regions, risk of autumn”. Also in Campania

Sebastians: "In October we risk a further increase in infections with the start of work activities and especially school activities. We need to vaccinate more, mandatory masks in class and frequent rapid tests (perhaps even in groups) for students".

This is what mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Applications of Calculus 'M. Picone', of the National Research Council (CNR) claims in light of the data on immunizations: the average of vaccinations last week was 200.000 doses per day, while the average of vaccinations up to six weeks ago was 530000-550000 doses per day, and vaccination coverage of under 19s is less than 20%.

Sebastiani's analysis indicates that after having plateaued for about two weeks, the national incidence is growing albeit weakly but the slowdown in the growth of the curve of daily admissions to intensive care continues, which should reach its maximum within the next seven days, as is the curve of the incidence of deaths.

“But these last two curves, which follow the trend of the incidence, could also start growing again, as the incidence curve is doing. And in some regions and autonomous provinces, the incidence is growing, including Sicily, Calabria, Campania, Molise, Basilicata and the province of Bolzano, and to a lesser extent also in Piedmont.

Some regions have reached the maximum, and the descent has begun which has then stopped, and then they have started to rise again: Lombardy and Marche, weakly in Veneto and Tuscany, some are in stasis after having passed a maximum and a descent phase, such as Emilia Romagna and Umbria, while others are in stasis without the descent phase, such as Sardinia and the province of Trento. The only regions that are decreasing are Lazio and Valle d'Aosta” he explains. The 3 critical regions are Sicily (yellow since Monday) with intensive care at 11% and ordinary wards 20%; Sardinia, (intensive care 12%, wards 14%) and Calabria (intensive care 8% and wards 17%). For both, the two indicators are growing.