Napoli are dominating Serie A and the data favors Spalletti 's team , who over the weekend saw their gap over their pursuers widen to +18 with Inter 's defeat in Bologna . This dominance is also confirmed by the data on xG , the "expected goals" of the Campania club's individual matches in this championship.
What are xG, the “expected goals”?
But what is it?
Let's talk about converting the probability of a shot becoming a goal into numbers , based on the angle of the shot, the distance from the goal, the presence of defenders or goalkeepers, and the way the ball is shot and received. The evaluation method is very simple: it goes from a scale that starts from 0 (which equates to the impossibility of scoring) to 1 (certainty of a goal).
The xG scored in a match, therefore, do nothing more than help us understand how dangerous a team is over the 90 minutes and how many goals it should have scored "statistically".
Napoli, the record on xG this year against Bologna and in Cremona
Napoli achieved their highest xG figure this season in the home win against Bologna on 16 October : it ended 3-2 for the Azzurri, who however wasted a lot of chances and the figure confirms this given the 4,48 xG created in that match. It is closely followed by the 4,47 xG created in the away win against Cremonese , but in this case Napoli managed to win the match by scoring 4 times, even if only in the final minutes thanks to the substitute Simeone.
The data on xG conceded: the Azzurri “beaten” in three games
However, the data on the xG conceded by the Azzurri this year is surprising.
Because it is true that Spalletti's men have suffered only one defeat so far, at San Siro against Inter on 4 January with 1,47 xG against them, but that is not the only match in which they were "beaten" in terms of expected goals . In fact, there are two matches in which the figure was even higher.
Let's talk first of all about the other away match at San Siro, the one against Milan , where the Rossoneri were defeated despite having achieved 2,25 xG against just 1,18 for the Neapolitans, who were clinical in finding the winning goal in the second half through substitute Simeone despite having created few chances. But the figure on xG conceded reached its peak in the match in Bergamo against Atalanta on 5 November, which the Azzurri won in a comeback with a result of 2-1.
The Nerazzurri wasted 2,79 xG , only scoring from a penalty with Lookman . Osimhen and Elmas then turned the result around.
