Brief respite from the bad weather in Italy, but a new rapid worsening is expected from the afternoon in the North and on Toscana. New heavy rains, strong winds and storm surges are expected along the Tyrrhenian coasts. According to the Italian Meteorological Center, the synoptic situation is characterized by the presence of a large depression area near the United Kingdom, within which two low pressure centers of 958 hPa act: Ciaran, responsible for the bad weather in the last few hours in Europe and Italy, and Domingos, a new Atlantic storm ready to cause new torrential rains and intense winds.
Over Italy, the trough that arrived in the last hours tends to move away towards the east, while a new disturbance, driven by the storm Domingos, is arriving from France. For today, Saturday 4 November, in the North the weather situation is initially stable with large clearings, but from the west a new disturbance is advancing with increasing clouds over the western Alps.
During the afternoon, widespread and rapid increase in cloudiness with precipitation expected in Liguria, Lombardy and Piedmont, snow on the Alps starting from 1100-1300 meters. During the evening, bad weather conditions are expected in eastern Liguria, Lombardy and Triveneto with precipitation of moderate-strong intensity; light rains expected in Piedmont and Emilia. Snow on the Alps on average from 1.100-1.400 meters. During the night, new improvement in Piedmont and western Liguria, bad weather expected in the remaining regions with rain and thunderstorms also intense in eastern Liguria and Friuli; in these areas, over 100 mm of rain per day are expected.
In the Center the day will start with widespread variability with residual phenomena in the lower Lazio. Substantially stable weather during the afternoon, but with alternating clouds and clearings, except for a tendency to worsen again in the upper Tuscany with widespread rains in the evening and subsequently extending to Umbria and Lazio. In the South residual instability, especially in the Tyrrhenian sectors, with showers and thunderstorms; drier with clearings on the Major Islands, Molise and northern Puglia. A new intense disturbance is therefore arriving in Italy, with the most active part expected in the Center-North between the evening and next night (new red alert). The most abundant precipitation is still expected in the same areas already severely tested in the last hours by flooding rains, therefore in Tuscany, eastern Liguria and Friuli with peaks of over 100 mm expected by Sunday morning.
Heavy rainfall expected next night also in Umbria and inland areas of Lazio. The formation of self-regenerating storm lines is not ruled out again. Not only rain, but storm winds will return to Italy with gusts from the southwest up to 100 km/h on the coasts of Tuscany, upper Lazio, eastern Liguria, Trieste and along the Apennines where they could reach 120 km/h. Storm surges expected from the evening-night on the coasts of eastern Liguria and the central Tyrrhenian Sea, where waves of up to 5 meters are expected, as well as on the western coasts of Sardinia with waves expected up to 6-7 meters.
The disturbance will pass quickly over Italy, freeing the North and much of the Center from Sunday. The day of November 5 will in fact be stable in the North with large clearings from the afternoon, except near the Western Alps where the Northwest currents will bring clouds and snow from 1500-1700 meters. Instability in the Center during the morning with showers and thunderstorms, more frequent on the Tyrrhenian sectors, but improving. Unstable over Campania, Basilicata, upper Tyrrhenian Calabria and northern Puglia.
Article published on November 4, 2023 - 12:18
