On 1 and 2 March, the meeting of the Major Risks Commission - Volcanic Risk Sector was held in Rome, at the headquarters of the Department of Civil Protection, dedicated to the phenomena currently underway in the area of Campi Flegrei.
This meeting followed the previous session on 27 and 28 October, allowing for a technical-scientific comparison with experts from the international scientific community specialized in volcanology, in particular with experience in phreatic eruptions.
Speakers included Nico Fournier of GNS (New Zealand), Harushisa Nakamichi of Kyoto University (Japan), Akihiko Terada of the Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan), Corentin Caudron of the Université Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium), Patrick Allard of the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (France), Chris Newhall, Larry Mastin and Jake Lowenstern of the USGS (United States Geological Survey – United States).
The Italian experts present include the director of the Vesuvius Observatory-Ingv, Mauro Di Vito, and the volcanologists of the Ingv Stefano Caliro, Roberto Isaia, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Mattia de Micheli Vitturi, together with Francesco Casu of the CNR-IREA. Representatives of the civil protection structure of the Campania Region also participated in the meeting.
Regarding the current situation of the Campi Flegrei volcano, it emerged from the analysis of the experts Ingv-Ov and CNR-IREA that the average value of the uplift velocity in the area of maximum deformation falls within the natural rates of oscillation that the caldera presents in the long term. Similarly, both seismicity and degassing remain within the values recorded in the recent past.
Since the overall state of the system appears substantially unchanged from a geophysical and geochemical point of view, the Commission has not deemed it necessary to change the current alert level (yellow), while reiterating the importance of continuing to communicate with the population and the competent authorities regarding the expected scenarios, the significant forecast uncertainty and the possible mitigation actions to be implemented.
The comparison with international experts has deepened the knowledge of the possible warning signals that could precede possible phreatic explosions. To date, there is no univocal interpretation of the monitoring signals to predict such events. Phreatic events in Campi Flegrei are rare and usually associated with superficial magma rises in the presence of hydrothermal systems.
Such events can have a significant impact up to distances of 1-3 kilometers. This aspect requires further investigation with the scientific community in order to define hazard and impact scenarios to be considered in emergency planning.
The Commission also suggested continuing to test methodologies for processing seismic data to detect any changes in subsurface characteristics over time, which could indicate gas accumulations related to phreatic explosions.
Consequently, the Department of Civil Protection has asked the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the Institute for Electromagnetic Sensing of the Environment of the National Research Council to deepen their knowledge of phreatic phenomena and to pay maximum attention to any evidence related to such dynamics.
The Commission's activity, together with the National Civil Protection Service and the scientific community, will continue to deepen the knowledge of the Campi Flegrei volcano and to adopt the necessary prevention measures.
Article published on March 6, 2024 - 21pm
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