The structure of future families is undergoing a seemingly vertical evolution. It would appear that grandparents are becoming the pillars of these structures, with a single generation of grandchildren at the base, followed by parents who are also only children.
But what fate awaits cousins, brothers and uncles in this new family order? Probably, the concept of the horizontal network of relatives belonging to the same generation is slowly disappearing, with a progressive decrease in their number.
The Demographic Factor
Several factors such as the decline in birth rates, the advanced age at which people choose to have children and the lengthening of life itself – particularly in Western countries – are some of the causes of these changes. These changes in family structure, however, are not confined to Western countries alone, but affect the entire world. These changes could have significant consequences on the health and social security systems of various countries.
The study “Projections of human kinship for all countries” published by The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, highlights this radical evolution of future families. The study, conducted by Diego Alburez-Gutierrez of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Ivan Williams of the University of Buenos Aires and Hal Caswell of the University of Amsterdam, studies population growth and decline around the world.
The Future Scenario of Families
To illustrate these dynamics, the study examines family structures from 1950 to the present and projects these trends to 2100. According to the study, in 1950 a 65-year-old woman had a family network of 41 people, but by 2095, this woman will have only 25 relatives – a 40% reduction. This indicates a change not only in quantitative terms, but also in qualitative terms: in the future, families will be composed of few members in a vertical sense, with only children, elderly parents and no siblings or cousins.
An Answer to the Troublesome Future
The change will be more pronounced in some countries than others. Europe and the United States, for example, will see a decrease in the number of relatives of a 65-year-old from 25 in 1950 to 15,9 in 2095. Italy, on the other hand, will go from 18 to 12,7, a decrease of 30%.
A significant case is China, where the effect of the one-child policy is clearly demonstrated. The number of relatives for an average Chinese woman at birth is decreasing, but the number of living ancestors shows an opposite trend. In fact, the probability of all four grandparents being alive at birth is set to reach 100% in the future.
In conclusion, major demographic trends, including a decrease in mortality at younger ages, a delay in fertility and a longer life, will give rise to multigenerational families. However, while many populations depend on informal care from relatives, the study warns that this type of family solidarity network will be increasingly less present, with significant consequences for tomorrow's society. This is not an insignificant issue to consider.
