A shocking new study, published in Nature Medicine, predicts a bleak future for Europe: if we don't take drastic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, over 2,3 million people could die from excessive heat by the end of the century.
The research, conducted by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and with the participation of Italian institutes such as the Ca' Foscari University of Venice and the Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), analyzed 854 European cities.
According to the study, the ten European cities that will see the highest number of temperature-related deaths by the end of the century are Barcelona (Spain), 246.082; Rome (Italy), 147.738; Naples (Italy), 147.248; Madrid (Spain), 129.716; Milan (Italy), 110.131; Athens (Greece), 87.523; Valencia (Spain), 67.519; Marseille (France), 51.306; Bucharest (Romania), 47.468; Genoa (Italy), 36.338.
Italy, along with Spain and Portugal, is among the most vulnerable countries. By the end of the century, heat-related mortality rates could triple, with a particularly severe impact on large cities.
"This study provides compelling evidence that the sharp increase in heat-related deaths will far outweigh any cold-related declines, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe.", says the Italian Antonio Gasparrini of the British Institute, co-author of the research.
"The findings refute theories about the 'beneficial' effects of climate change," Gasparrini adds, "which are often proposed to oppose mitigation policies that should instead be implemented as soon as possible."
As we move away from the Mediterranean region, less severe impacts are expected, with several major European capitals, such as Paris, seeing a smaller, though still significant, increase in heat-related deaths. Meanwhile, most cities in Northern Europe, such as those in the United Kingdom and Scandinavia, could see a marked decline in deaths due to the sharp reduction in cold-related deaths.
This lower death toll, however, would be largely offset by increases in the rest of Europe, resulting in 2,3 million total climate-related deaths.
But there is hope: according to experts, up to 70% of these deaths could be avoided by acting quickly to mitigate the effects of climate change. "We must aggressively pursue both emissions reduction and adaptation to new climate conditions," he says. Pierre Masselot, author of the study. "The future is in our hands."
The numbers of the study:
2,3 million: The estimated number of additional heat-related deaths by 2099.
854: the number of European cities analyzed.
70%: The percentage of deaths that could be avoided with immediate action.
10: the number of European cities most at risk, of which 4 are Italian.
The consequences for Italy:
Significant increase in mortality: especially in large cities and southern regions.
Impact on public health: heat waves, heat stroke, dehydration.
High economic costs: for healthcare, agriculture and other activities.
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Comments (1)
The article is interesting but there are too many worries about the future. It is true that the climate is changing, but I do not know if the deaths can be so many. We need to do more to understand.