According to estimates by the Plinivs Study Centre, approximately 80.000 people live in the areas at risk of bradyseismic Campi FlegreiThe study conducted by the center, coordinated by the Civil Protection Department, allowed for an analysis of the seismic vulnerability of buildings in the area.
"As early as March 2024, as a competence center, we started an expeditious vulnerability assessment action as required by Legislative Decree 140 of 2023. The analysis was conducted by technicians and professionals, trained by our center with the support of specialized tutors.
"The work was carried out building by building on a total of 12.700 structures in the bradyseismic area, allowing us to quickly calculate a vulnerability based on data collected from outside the buildings," explained Professor Giulio Zuccaro, scientific director of the Plinivs Study Center and full professor of "Building Science" at the University of Naples Federico II, during an interview given today to the program 'La Giornata in 24 minuti' on Radio 24.
The analysis allowed us to classify the 12.
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"Fifty percent of the buildings," Zuccaro added, "are classified as being between medium and high risk, with over 50% presenting a high risk. A magnitude 10 earthquake affecting this 5% of buildings would not cause a catastrophe, but it could still cause significant damage. However, based on this assessment, it is not possible to predict with certainty the number of buildings that could collapse or the impact on the population."
The analysis also identified the highest-risk areas, those with the highest concentration of vulnerable buildings, from which to base planning for interventions and the allocation of government funding for safety improvements.
"Every structure," Zuccaro concluded, "responds differently to a seismic event, and while vulnerability curves provide a statistical estimate, there is always a margin of uncertainty. In some cases, buildings considered vulnerable have withstood past earthquakes, while others have sustained significant damage.
For this reason, it is essential to concentrate resources on the most exposed areas and initiate targeted interventions to reduce the risk". The Plinivs Study Centre will continue to monitor the situation and collaborate with the competent authorities to guarantee the safety of the population living in the areas at risk of bradyseism in the Campi Flegrei.
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