Rome – Italy is bracing for a surge in West Nile virus cases, with a peak expected after mid-August, followed by a rapid decline. Antonello Maruotti, full professor of statistics at Lumsa University, sounded the alarm in an interview with Rainews.it.
Unlike previous years, when the most affected regions were Emilia-Romagna and Veneto, in 2025 the virus is concentrated mainly in Lazio, particularly in the province of Latina, and in Campania.
An evolving trend
"West Nile cases are on the rise in Italy, but this is nothing new," explains Maruotti. "In 2018, we recorded over 550 cases, while last year we reached around 460." The difference compared to the past, the expert emphasizes, lies in the geographic distribution:
"In previous years, infections were mainly confined to Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, and some areas of the Po Valley. This year, however, the virus is hitting Lazio and Campania the hardest, a real novelty."
The forecast: imminent peak, then decline
According to an analysis of historical data, the infection curve follows a clearly defined seasonal pattern. "Cases began to increase from mid-July, peaking between the second and third weeks of August," Maruotti specifies.
"Immediately afterward, the trend is one of rapid decline." This situation calls for vigilance in the coming weeks, especially in the most at-risk areas, where health authorities are already working to monitor the situation and prevent the spread of the virus, which is primarily transmitted through mosquito bites.
A virus under observation
West Nile virus, monitored annually at this time, represents a seasonal threat that requires attention, especially for the most vulnerable groups. Although most infections are asymptomatic or mild, in some cases it can cause serious complications.
The current concentration of cases in Lazio and Campania highlights the need to strengthen prevention measures, such as disinfestation and control of mosquitoes, the main vectors of the virus.
With a peak in cases expected soon, Italy is facing a wave of West Nile virus affecting different regions than in the past. Maruotti's warning underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and targeted interventions to contain the spread. While Lazio and Campania remain under observation, the hope is that, as expected, the infection curve will decline rapidly after August, limiting the impact of this health emergency.
I agree with you: prevention is essential, but we also need to inform the public about how to protect themselves from mosquitoes and the symptoms of the virus, so everyone can do their part.
It's a strange situation; I don't understand why West Nile virus is concentrated only in Lazio and Campania. It was different in previous years. I hope the health authorities take this issue seriously and intervene promptly.