The victories in the last round have reshaped the European landscape for Napoli and Juventus, giving the two Italian teams a much more solid qualification prospect than they had only imagined until a few days ago. The Azzurri's victory over Qarabag has allowed the team to reach seven points, reopening prospects that until yesterday seemed complicated.
With three games left, Conte's men can secure a playoff spot by picking up three points against Benfica, Copenhagen, and Chelsea, while with just two points they risk being crushed by their still-negative goal difference.
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Juventus's positive night, however, stems from Jonathan David's last-gasp goal against Bodo/Glimt, a goal that could weigh much more heavily on the Bianconeri's European fortunes than it appears. Spalletti's team moves to six points, four shy of mathematically securing a playoff spot. A spot in the top twenty-four remains a concrete objective, thanks to a schedule that features Pafos and Benfica at the Stadium before the finale at Monaco.
Football Meets Data projections give Juventus a 91% chance of qualifying, a figure that speaks volumes about their renewed confidence. The road to the top eight is more tortuous: even with three straight wins, the Bianconeri would reach fifteen points, not enough to secure the round of 8 without going through the playoffs. Everything would depend on any slowdowns from the teams currently ahead and a significant improvement in goal difference, which remains at zero. Nothing is technically out of the question: they need a full haul of points and a slowdown from the others.
Comments (1)
The article is interesting and presents Napoli and Juventus's chances well, but there are still too many unknowns. It's true that the teams are doing well, but the competition is tough and there are many variables to consider.