Rome – Seismic risk to Italian residential buildings carries a potential estimated cost of nearly €4 billion annually. This represents a significant burden for a real estate portfolio that is often dated and vulnerable, and which is now being analyzed with a more integrated and innovative approach.
This is what emerges from the new mapping model of the Italian territory developed by the Italian Home Department together with Plivins Aps, under the scientific supervision of Professor Giulio Zuccaro, head of the Plinius Research Center and professor at the University of Naples.
The study, presented on the occasion of the 8th National Earthquake Prevention Day promoted by the Inarcassa Foundation and the National Councils of Engineers and Architects, aims to systematically connect—for the first time—seismic, hydrogeological, and climate risk with buildings' energy consumption.
The goal is clear: to leverage the impetus of the "Green Directive" to integrate energy efficiency measures with seismic improvement measures, avoiding duplication and maximizing the effectiveness of public and private resources.
At the heart of the analysis is a high-resolution map, constructed on one-square-kilometer territorial cells, which cross-references hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data from INGV and ISTAT. This solid knowledge base is destined to become an operational tool for planning prevention and accurately targeting investments, including those related to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).
Initial analyses reveal surprising data. Lombardy is the region with the most exposed residential real estate, with nearly 500 buildings classified in the highest risk band. Piedmont follows closely behind, with very similar figures, while Sicily ranks third with just under 400 buildings considered high risk.
In terms of overall seismic risk, however, Sicily, Calabria, and Emilia-Romagna remain the regions most vulnerable to the threat of earthquakes.
The new mapping therefore offers a more comprehensive and synergistic understanding of risk, providing public authorities with a tool to prioritize interventions and families with a clearer picture of the region's vulnerability. This represents a decisive step forward toward planned prevention that combines safety, sustainability, and energy savings.
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