Rome - Current conditions in the Campi Flegrei caldera would be incapable of triggering an eruption. This is the conclusion of a study conducted by a team of researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and the University of Geneva, published in the scientific journal Communications Earth and Environment (Nature).
The work, entitled “Scenario-based forecast of the evolution of 75 years of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)”, used thermal and petrological models to reconstruct a reference scenario based on what is defined in the literature as the “worst case”, that is, the most conservative hypothesis from the point of view of volcanic hazard.
The study assumes that the bradyseism occurring since 2005, as well as that recorded in the 1950s, the early 1970s, and between 1982 and 1984, is fueled by successive magma intrusions at a depth of approximately 4 kilometers. "We chose to start with this hypothesis because it is the most prudent for the population of the Phlegraean Fields area and allows us to outline a possible evolutionary scenario," explains Stefano Carlino, researcher at the INGV and co-author of the study.
The results indicate that, even assuming the presence of potentially eruptible magma and sufficient internal pressure to fracture the crust, an eruption would currently be hindered by several factors. "The reduced volume of the magma reservoir and the viscous deformation of the surrounding crust represent a brake on magma ascent," emphasizes Luca Caricchi, full professor at the University of Geneva and co-author of the study.
In particular, explain Charline Lormand and Guy Simpson, also of the University of Geneva, a possible magma release would cause a rapid drop in the internal pressure of the reservoir, depriving the magma of the energy needed to reach the surface.
According to the researchers, only if the current ground uplift were to continue for decades at rates similar to today's could the magma source reach dimensions comparable to those that fueled the last eruption of the Campi Flegrei, which occurred in 1538.
However, this hypothesis is based on assumptions that are difficult to verify. "Attributing the bradyseism of the last 75 years exclusively to the ascent of deep magma and the fluids it releases is a possibility, but it remains complex to prove," Carlino reiterates.
Even the presence of fractures in the crust, documented by previous studies, doesn't change the overall picture. "Current conditions are not compatible with an eruptive event," specifies Tommaso Pivetta, a researcher at the INGV and co-author of the article.
In a statement, the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology emphasizes that the main challenge remains understanding the true nature of the source of bradyseism. This objective requires constant monitoring and the integration of geophysical, geochemical, and geodetic data, in a context that continues to be the subject of scientific debate.
Source EDITORIAL TEAM
Comments (1)
The study on the Campi Flegrei seems interesting, but it's difficult to understand how the factors that influence magma can be measured. The information is useful, but there are many things that need to be clarified regarding the data and the proposed scenarios.