Why Trump's tariffs will be a €300 million blow to Naples and Campania

NApoli– The shadow of Donald Trump's tariffs looms menacingly over the Campania economy, threatening to impose a tax of gigantic proportions.

If the 30% generalized tariff on the European Union, which Trump mentioned in his recent letter to Brussels, were to materialize, the Naples metropolitan area would face customs costs estimated at approximately €300 million on exports to the United States. This figure represents nearly a third of Naples' €XNUMX billion in exports to the US.

Adding to this potential blow is the effect of the dollar's devaluation against the euro, amounting to approximately 12%, which would bring the effective tariff rate to 42%. Although formally the duty is borne by the importer, in practice it translates into an increase in the price of the product on the American market.

And, with the exception of luxury goods, for all other goods this means a reduction in sales, with consumers turning to cheaper substitutes.

The "cold shower": a tariff three times higher than expected

Trump's move, perceived by some as a provocation to force Europe to accept all US demands – starting with full and open access to the European market and the elimination of EU "taxes" – was a "cold shower" for European negotiators.

The ongoing negotiations in fact envisaged a 10% tariff, similar to that applied to Great Britain, and certainly not three times as much.

These tariffs would particularly penalize exports from Southern Italy. The southern regions, with the exception of Puglia, have a low level of diversification in their products sold on foreign markets, making them more vulnerable.

Campania: The hardest-hit sectors and damage estimates

According to the Mestre-based CGIA, Campania exports three main product categories to the US: motor vehicles, food, and pharmaceuticals. Marco Granelli, president of Confartigianato, estimates that Campania's exports to the United States amount to just over €0,9 billion, equal to XNUMX% of the regional GDP, with the food and fashion sectors accounting for the highest percentages.

The Neapolitan area has already suffered a drastic halving of exports to the United States between 2023 and 2024, mainly due to:

The collapse of the automotive sector, with the reduction in Stellantis production in Pomigliano and the loss of market share in subcontracting due to the automotive crisis in Germany. A drop estimated at 40%.

The tariff announcement alone has severely impacted Campanian agri-food products such as oil, pasta, wine, and dairy products. Overall, in 2024, Campanian exports to the US decreased by 28,2%.

In the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, Naples lost approximately €850 million in the automotive sector. Pharmaceutical exports have expanded, but it remains to be seen whether these too will be affected by the 30% tariffs.

Entrepreneurs sound the alarm: "New markets won't compensate for the US."

The United States remains Campania's most important non-EU market. Campanian operators' reactions were swift, with the greatest concerns focused not only on the automotive sector but also on the agri-food sector, where pasta, cheese, sauces, and wine are among the top five exports.

Massimo Menna, head of Pastificio Garofalo, which will launch the "Strapasta" pasta in September with a €70 million investment in its Gragnano plant, has already deemed a 20% tariff problematic and, as reported by Il Corriere del Mezzogiorno, says he is convinced that new markets, although growing, will not be able to offset the American one.

Similar concerns were expressed by the Consortium for Mozzarella di Bufala Campana DOP, fresh from the Summer Fancy Food event in New York. The American market represents between 7% and 10% of total exports in absolute value (almost €20 million).

"Regardless of the current figures, tariffs should be avoided, as they would undermine the sector's growth potential in the US, especially in the Horeca channel, where mozzarella is perceived as a premium product and appreciated in high-end restaurants," explained President Raimondo.

The impact on other provinces of Campania

The other provinces of Campania will also feel the effects of the tariffs, albeit with lower figures than Naples.

SalernoIt exports goods to the United States worth over €630 million, on which a 30% tariff would increase the burden by €189 million. Its main products are processed fruit and vegetables, canned tomatoes, sugar, cocoa, and condiments.

Irpinia: Exports for 195 million euros, with a potential duty of 58,5 million.

Caserta: Exports for 120 million euros, with an additional 36 million.

SannioIt would be the least affected province, with exports of just 17 million euros, and a duty of “only” 5,1 million euros.

Svimez estimates: a warning for Southern Italy

According to Svimez estimates, the South's share of Italian exports to the US stands at 12,4%. In some specific sectors, such as automotive and computer electronics, it reaches 28,4%, in agri-food 22,6%, and in pharmaceuticals 11,2%.

Svimez has calculated that Southern Italy's exports to the US would decline by 4,7% with a 10% horizontal tariff and by 9,3% with a 20% generalized tariff. The loss would be smaller for exports from Central and Northern Italy (4,2% with a 10% tariff, 8,5% with a 20% tariff). Svimez had not developed projections for a 30% tariff, considering this percentage unlikely before Trump's latest announcement.

The figures of the potential damage of US tariffs

850 MillionsThe amount lost by automotive exports in the last quarter of last year in Naples.

1 Billion: The amount of exports to the United States of America is from small food and fashion companies.

28 percentThe loss of Campania's agri-food exports to the United States of America recorded in 2024.

How do you think European and national institutions can effectively respond to this potential economic threat to protect Campania's exports?