The independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation detects in the week 13-19 October 2021, compared to the previous one, a slight decrease in new cases (17.870 vs 18.209) and a substantial stability in deaths (271 vs 266).
The number of currently positive cases is decreasing (74.546 vs 82.546), the number of people in home isolation (71.768 vs 79.511), the number of hospitalizations with symptoms (2.423 vs 2.665) and the number of intensive care patients (355 vs 370).
In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded: – Deaths: 271 (+1,9%), of which 28 referred to previous periods – Intensive care: -15 (-4,1%) – Hospitalized with symptoms: -242 (-9,1%) – Home isolation: -7.743 (-9,7%) – New cases: 17.870 (-1,9%) – Currently positive cases: -8.000 (-9,7%) “At the national level – declares Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation – snew weekly cases have been decreasing for 7 weeks. In the last week, however, the decrease is only 1,9% also due to an increase in total swabs that is almost 50%: a good +930 thousand compared to the previous week”.
Seven regions have seen a percentage increase in infections, although in absolute terms the increases are modest: Liguria (+7), Umbria (+14), Friuli Venezia Giulia (+19), Campania (+114), Lombardy (+120), Piedmont (+129), Lazio (+131). The number of provinces with an incidence equal to or greater than 156 cases per 9 inhabitants has dropped to 50, and none has more than 100.000 cases per 150 inhabitants. Deaths have remained substantially stable: 100.000 in the last 271 days (of which 7 refer to previous periods), with an average of 28 per day compared to 39 in the previous week.
“On the hospital front – says Renata Gili, Head of Health Services Research at the GIMBE Foundation – a further drop in beds occupied by COVID-19 patients has been recorded: compared to the previous week, they have dropped by 9,1% in the medical area and by 4,1% in intensive care”.
At the national level, the employment rate remains very low (4% in the medical area and 4% in the critical area) and no Region exceeds the thresholds of 15% for the medical area and 10% for the critical area.
“Daily admissions to intensive care stable – explains Marco Mosti, Operations Director of the GIMBE Foundation – with a 7-day moving average of 20 admissions/day compared to 19 the previous week”.
As of October 20 (updated 6.13 am), 99.716.407 doses have been delivered: despite the absence of new supplies in the last week, mRNA vaccine stocks stand at 12 million. As of October 20 (updated 6.13 am), 78,2% of the population (46.320.599) has received at least one dose of vaccine (+424.517 compared to the previous week) and 74,3% (44.047.436) has completed the vaccination cycle (+591.512 compared to the previous week). The number of administrations has increased in the last week (1.260.748), with a 7-day rolling average of 178.907 administrations/day.
Vaccination coverage with at least one dose of vaccine varies greatly across age groups: from 97% of those over 80 to 72,3% of those aged 12-19. In general, there have been modest increases compared to the previous week: the number of people vaccinated with at least one dose has increased by 1,5% in the 30-39 age group, by 1,4% in the 20-29 age group, by 1,1% in the 40-49 age group, by 0,9% in the 12-19 age group, by 0,8% in the 50-59 age group, while in the over 60s the increase does not exceed 0,4%. The effectiveness of the vaccine on the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 has decreased from 88,5% in the period 4 April-11 July to 77,2% in the period 4 April-26 September and then rose again to 77,8% in the period 4 April-10 October; The data was significantly influenced by the 12-39 age group, in which efficacy dropped to 67,2% in the period from 4 April to 29 August, before rising to 75,3% in the period from 4 April to 10 October.
Vaccine efficacy remains very high in reducing deaths (94,3%) and severe forms of disease requiring hospitalization in medical areas (92,4%) and intensive care (94,8%). However, starting from mid-August, while remaining above 90%, the trend is slightly decreasing for hospitalizations (-2,5%), admissions to intensive care (-2,2%) and deaths (-2,9%). Overall, in people vaccinated with a full cycle, compared to those not vaccinated, in the various age groups the incidence of diagnosis (77,6%-84,8%) and above all of serious disease (87,1-95,5% for ordinary hospitalizations; 89,4-98,9% for intensive care) and death (80,7-96,8%) is significantly reduced.
The population eligible for the third dose of vaccination is not yet updated in the Open Data on COVID-19 vaccines with respect to the extension of the Circular of the Ministry of Health of 8 October 2021, remaining at 7,6 million people according to the categories provided for in the previous circular. Given the wide availability of vaccines, only 16 doses have been administered since 700.623 September, with a coverage rate of 9,3% and significant regional differences: from 28,1% in Molise to 1,2% in Valle D'Aosta. The number of rapid antigen swabs has seen a sharp increase, increasing by 78,5% in a week: the 7-day moving average rose from 173.235 on 13 October to 309.297 on 19 October; overall, 2.151.081 rapid antigen swabs were carried out in the last week. The 7-day moving average of new vaccinations remains substantially stable: from 57.275 on October 13 to 58.201 on October 19; overall, 407.404 new people were vaccinated in the last week (+4,7%). “In interpreting the effects of the green pass on swabs and new vaccinations – explains Cartabellotta – it must be taken into account that each unvaccinated person can undergo up to 3 swabs per week, while to increase vaccination coverage it is sufficient that the number of new vaccinated people does not tend to zero".
Of the 407.404 new people vaccinated in the week of October 13-19, 86,4% belong to age groups that include people of working age: 78.387 in the 20-29 age group, 90.960 in the 30-39 age group, 85.745 in the 40-49 age group, 68.812 in the 50-59 age group and 27.934 in the 60-69 age group. Analyzing the number of new vaccinated people in the week of October 13-19 standardized per 100.000 subjects who have not received even one dose of the vaccine as of October 12, significant regional differences are noted: from 6.437 in the PA of Trento to 3.516 in Molise.
“Looking at the less than reassuring scenarios of other countries – concludes Cartabellotta – and in the current impossibility of both defining “magic” percentages to achieve population immunity and predicting the times to reach a precise vaccination target, with the winter season upon us and the vaccine efficacy slowly starting to decline 6 months after the completion of the cycle, the GIMBE Foundation invites us to pursue a multifactorial strategy to protect people's health and guarantee the irreversibility of the reopenings”.
In detail: vaccinate the highest possible number of people over 12 who do not have specific contraindications, both for individual protection from serious illness or death, especially for those over 50, and to minimize viral circulation; accelerate the administration of the third dose, ideally with active call mechanisms, with maximum priority for those over 80, guests and staff of RSA and healthcare workers, proceeding in parallel with those over 60 and over 18 with comorbidities; introduce the obligation of the third dose for healthcare workers; progressively extend the vaccinable group with the booster dose to the 50-59 age group and subsequently, if necessary, to other age groups; maintain the obligation to use masks indoors and adhere to social distancing rules.
Article published on 21 October 2021 - 17:17
Video Chronicles
