When will the cold weather arrive? Temperatures will drop, here's what could happen in October 2026.

Autumn has begun, but the cold still seems far away. In these final days of September, Italy continues to experience above-average temperatures for the period, influenced by a vast area of ​​high pressure that's keeping the weather mostly stable. The question, therefore, is: when will the cold arrive and when will temperatures begin to drop?

The latest forecasts indicate that early October could still be characterized by mild conditions, with temperatures above the seasonal average. However, in the first few days of the month, atmospheric circulation could begin to change, paving the way for a more unstable phase and an initial drop in temperatures.

The end of September is still mild: the cold hasn't arrived yet

The final days of September will be characterized by weather conditions that are still far from typical autumnal. Subtropical high pressure continues to affect much of Italy, favoring mostly stable days and still high temperatures for this period.

According to the latest updates, between late September and early October, highs could locally reach 26-28°C , with particularly mild temperatures especially in central and southern Italy. The temperature range will be more noticeable at night and in the early morning, when inland areas and valleys may experience significantly lower temperatures than in the afternoon.

The Italian Air Force 's monthly forecast also confirms the mild situation. For the week of September 28th to October 4th, temperatures are expected to be above average across Italy, with the highest temperatures being seen in the Alps, the Po Valley, and eastern Liguria.

This means that, at least in the first part of October, a real arrival of the autumnal cold is not expected across the entire peninsula.

When will temperatures drop? A possible turning point is October 5-6.

However, the situation could start to change as the first week of October progresses.

The latest updates indicate the possibility of an atmospheric release around October 5-6 , with the arrival of more humid and unstable currents and an increase in precipitation. The passage of a low-pressure system could also favor a drop in temperatures compared to the particularly mild values ​​recorded in the last few days of September.

This wouldn't necessarily mean the arrival of the cold weather itself. The first effect could be a return of more autumnal conditions, with increased cloud cover, rain, and temperatures closer to typical for the period.

However, the Italian Air Force forecast is more cautious regarding temperatures: even in the week from 5 to 11 October, temperatures are still expected to be above average throughout Italy , despite an increase in precipitation, especially in the North and on the central Tyrrhenian coast.

For this reason, it's still too early to talk about a true cold snap. The possible drop in temperatures in early October could primarily represent a reduction in the anomalous heat of late September.

Will October 2026 be cold? Forecasts still call for above-average temperatures.

The trend for the rest of the month does not currently indicate an immediate shift towards decidedly cold conditions.

The Italian Air Force's monthly forecast shows above-average temperatures also for the week of October 12-18 and, with greater uncertainty due to the temporal distance, also for the week of October 19-25.

This doesn't mean that cold days or sudden drops in temperatures can't occur in October. Long-term forecasts, in fact, can't accurately predict the weather for a single day and must be interpreted as probabilistic trends.

The general picture remains that of a potentially milder-than-usual October , at least based on the updates available at the moment.

Seasonal analyses cited by ANSA and the Lamma-CNR Consortium also indicate a greater probability of above-average temperatures in Italy for autumn 2026, while underlining the uncertainty surrounding precipitation trends and specifying that a warmer-than-average season does not necessarily mean three consecutive months of heat.

So, when does the first cold weather arrive?

The answer, at the moment, requires some distinction. An initial drop in temperatures could arrive in early October , especially with the possible change in circulation expected between the 5th and 6th of the month. But there's not enough evidence to speak of a cold wave in Italy yet.

The beginning of October should therefore remain mild, while the potential for unsettled weather during the first week could bring the climate back to more autumnal conditions. For a real drop in temperatures and the arrival of cold weather, we will have to wait for the next weather model updates.

The situation therefore remains to be monitored: the heat does not seem destined to end abruptly, but the first change of pace could arrive in the first week of October.