The memory of the supercells in the North, the hail (new European record) of 19 centimetres in Pordenone and all the other extreme events recorded between 18 and 26 July is still very much alive.
Will Circe bring the same extremes? The answer is difficult, but at the moment it seems a different situation. There will be more storms, more widespread but probably less vehement.
A new and important risk concerns the Center-South, a sector where the weather has still been mild: this first Atlantic disturbance, after weeks of sultry heat, could be particularly violent and anomalous.
Weather monitoring and updates will therefore be essential, at least until Saturday evening, then we will return to experience the summer of rest, tranquility and holidays.
Cyclone Circe, “violent, cold, but fast” will hit Italy from North to South. Between today and Saturday we will have a drop in temperatures of at least 10 degrees. Violent downpours are feared, scattered here and there.
The timing of this Atlantic disturbance is surprising: a cyclone at the beginning of August is something new that strikes unexpectedly and disorients even Italian climatology.
Very rarely have such deep and developed disturbances been recorded at the end of July or at the beginning of August: this Atlantic front will even touch Tunisia, moving far south, thus involving the whole of Italy.
In detail, today we will have the first showers at times intense on Eastern Liguria, Upper Tuscany and Triveneto; in particular, in the evening they could also be violent between Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia.
But the worst day will be Friday, August 4th when the low pressure minimum, the eye of Cyclone Circe, will have moved to the central regions: from this position it will favor intense phenomena throughout the Center-North.
From the evening, then, with the movement of the cyclone towards the Balkans we will still have strong thunderstorms across the entire Adriatic coast and in the South, with a gradual attenuation in the North: as far as the South is concerned, maximum attention, therefore, between late Friday evening and Saturday night, especially in the Lower Tyrrhenian, when violent downpours are not excluded, to be confirmed.
The cause of the intense phenomena is to be found in three fundamental ingredients: the cold-hearted cyclone arrives in a very hot and fully summery period, the Italian Mediterranean Sea boils with 30-32°C (5-6°C above the norm) and the heat also provides energy to the storms on the mainland, the trajectory of Circe is very southerly and hits all of Italy until it touches Tunisia”.
Article published on 3 August 2023 - 09:09
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