In Italy, there are still over a million people currently positive for Covid-19.
The data released yesterday by the Ministry of Health paints an improving picture, but the experts are not giving any specific information. And so subvariants of Omicron (BA.2 prevalent in Italy, and BA.4 and 5) and reinfections, rise to 5% in Italy (almost 400 thousand since the beginning of the pandemic and pushed by Omicron), without an increase in hospitalizations, represent an alarm bell especially for the post-summer.
Although the new vaccine adapted to Omicron is expected in the fall. At the moment, according to the director of the Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology Unit of the Bio-medico Campus of Rome, Massimo Ciccozzi, “we are still traveling at 40-50 thousand cases per day but there is a 10-20 percent that escapes the tests, as happens in epidemiological surveillance”.
Instead, it is urgent to strengthen genomic surveillance and create sequences to be able to outline scenarios of evolution of the pandemic trend in reference to the spread of Omicron subvariants and recombinants".
The spread of Omicron 1 and Omicron 2 in Italy and Europe, Ciccozzi reports, "is leading to a sort of natural immunity that could act as a shield and make life difficult for the new subvariants BA.4 and 5 that are raging in South Africa, accounting for 75% of infections".
And if we also have a peak, "it won't be like the one in South Africa“, and neither “like the first of Omicron in Italy”. In South Africa, moreover, Ciccozzi explains, the two subvariants 4 and 5 “they would appear to be driven by an important mutation, the F486V which appears to be implicated in evading antibodies and therefore promoting contagion”.
On the reinfection factor “those who have taken Omicron 1 can become reinfected with Omicron 2 but then cannot become infected again with 1”, says Ciccozzi.
From the latest rapid survey on the prevalence and distribution of Sars-CoV-2 variants conducted by the Istituto Superiore di Sanita' and the Ministry of Health with the regional laboratories and the Fondazione Bruno Kessler, on April 4th the Omicron variant had an estimated prevalence of 100%, with the BA.2 subvariant prevalent and the presence of some cases of the 'recombinant' variant of the same Omicron.
“With all these changes in the fall there is a risk of a new wave and the growth in reinfections, with 397 thousand cases since August, may seem marginal at this stage but it is an alarm bell and proof that the pandemic is not over and that after the summer it could become worrying again”, says the health director of the Ircss Galeazzi of Milan, Fabrizio Pregliasco underlining that “the strength of Sars-CoV-2 is its instability, due to even minimal mutations, so vaccination and recovery are no guarantees of immunity”.
The current risk, he continues, “it is the loss of perception of risks and presymptomatic, asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic without adequate protection will be the Trojan horses with which Sars-CoV-2 will carry on the infection”
Article published on May 9, 2022 - 07:19 pm
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